A big part of baseball and sports in general is playing the "what if"
game. What if Babe Ruth was never traded to the Yankees? What if Pete
Rose never bet on baseball? What if Bill Buckner had fielded that ground
ball cleanly? As a proponent of saber metrics, I am fascinated by
numbers and what they say about each individual player's performance.
One of my most interesting projects has focused on assembling the
greatest lineup of hitters to ever play the game. To do this, I found
the players with the highest all-time on base percentage (OBP) at each
position, and structured them accordingly to create a run-producing
powerhouse. The reason behind choosing OBP over popular statistics such
as batting average and home runs is because on base percentage is one of
the most accurate indicators of run value. If a batter gets on base,
the team has a higher chance to score more runs, and more runs means a
greater chance of winning. Each of these players has a particular set of
skills (just like the Avengers, and Liam Neeson), that could be
utilized to create the most successful lineup. Here is the order I came up with:
Billy Hamilton CF (Line: .344/.455/.432)-
No, I do not mean the speedy sensation for the Cincinnati Reds. I'm
talking about the turn-of-the-century, hall of fame outfielder who had
one of the greatest seasons in the history of Major League Baseball. In
1894, Hamilton posted an unbelievable stat line, hitting .403 with a
.521 on base. He cashed out 225 hits to go along with 128 base on balls,
and swiped 100 bases. Oh and did I mention that Hamilton scored 198
runs? One. Nine. Eight. That record has yet to be broken.
Babe Ruth RF
(Line: .342/.474/.690)- There's no question that the Sultan of Swat
would be in this elite assembly, but I want to make a case for the great
slugger batting second. With Hamilton's hefty OBP and base path
presence, Ruth would see an increase in fastballs per plate appearance
in the number two spot. The reasoning behind this is that because a
fastball will reach the plate faster, there is a higher likelihood that
the catcher will be able to release the ball quickly when trying to
catch the lead off hitter stealing second.
Ted Williams LF
(Line: .344/.482/.634)- If the number three batter is often described
as the best hitter on the team, then this lineup will have the greatest
hitter who ever lived in that spot as well. Ted Williams was just that.
With the highest on base percentage of all time, Ted Williams was a
master of plate discipline. He could analyze a pitch like no other, and
capitalize on even the smallest mistake made by a pitcher.
Lou Gehrig 1B
(Line: .340/.447/.632)- Gehrig was an artist of driving in runs, shown
by his astounding 7 seasons of 150+ runs batted in. He is the perfect
all-time cleanup hitter, and a dangerous force behind Ruth and
Williams.What's scary is that Gehrig and Ruth had the chance to play on
the same team, a fierce combination that was dubbed "Murderer's Row."
Rogers Hornsby
2B (Line: .358/.434/.577)- There are few second basemen in the history
of the game that have shown as much offensive prowess as Hornsby. The
Cardinal slugger won 7 batting titles to go along with 2 triple crowns
during a time where his production was overshadowed by the likes of Ruth
and Gehrig. His 1922 season was one for the books: 42 big flies, 152
RBIs, 250 hits, and a line of .401/.459/.722. That's about as good as it
gets ladies and gentlemen.
Mickey Cochrane
C (Line: .320/.419/.478)- Despite only playing 13 years in the majors,
the hall of fame catcher won 2 MVP awards and posted a .419 lifetime on
base percentage. Names like Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, and Mike Piazza
are labeled as having the better offensive force, but none was more
consistent than Cochrane in getting on base and into scoring
position.Yes I am still bitter about Cochrane defeating Gehrig in the
1934 MVP race, but as a phenomenal catcher for a playoff bound Tigers
squad, he definitely had the credentials.
Arky Vaughan
SS (Line: .318/.406/.453)- Vaughan's reign in the big leagues came over
a decade after his predecessor, Pirate short stop Honus Wagner, ended
his career ranked third all time in hits. Although Wagner received
greater attention and ranks significantly higher in several offensive
categories, Vaughan wins the spot in this lineup based purely on his OBP. He was also a triples machine, averaging 12 per year in his first 9 seasons.
John McGraw
3B (Line: .334/.466/.410)- McGraw follows the same pattern as the men
at the bottom of this lineup: not a big name and no popular
accomplishments. However, this third baseman could beat you every which
way on the base path. A lifetime .466 on base and 436 stolen bases, it
pains me to put McGraw in the 8 spot, but someone had to be there. His
power numbers aren't as good as Vaughan or Cochrane's, but that was mainly due to a different ball era and McGraw could do well at any of the 6-8 positions.
Les Sweetland
P (Line: .272/.341/.338)- Who??? Yeah, I don't blame you. Lester Leo
Sweetland pitched 5 years in the majors, going 33-58 with a whopping
6.10 ERA. This guy's only black ink was the 15 batters he hit during the
1928 season. Despite the terrible pitching campaign, Sweetland hit .272
with a .341 on base in 325 career plate appearances, making him one of
the greatest hitting pitchers of all time (THE greatest in terms of on
base).
Friday, April 24, 2015
Monday, April 6, 2015
Opening Day Thoughts
Walking into Great American Ballpark is a field day for the senses.
My nose was overwhelmed by the sweet smell of cheese coneys and kettle
corn, my eyes fixed on the beautifully crafted murals lining the walls,
and my ears tuned in to the roar of 43,633 strong ready for baseball.
This is Reds country.
The Reds are coming off a mediocre 2014 season, finishing 76-86 which was good for a 4th place finish in the NL Central. An injury to first baseman Joey Votto was a critical blow to the Reds' postseason aspirations. A Cy Young-worthy performance by ace Johnny Cueto, a surprise contribution from Alfredo Simon, and good offensive production from sluggers Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier were all key factors in keeping the Reds slightly above water for most of the season.
This year looks to be different, however, as Cincinnati put together a solid set of off-season acquisitions and has a healthy lineup of incredible talent. Pursuing a division title will rely in part on the performance of newly acquired pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and veteran Jason Marquis, as well as the contributions of a shaky bullpen that has caused trouble in recent years. This Cincy ball club has all the pieces for postseason success, but the real challenge will be finding where each piece fits and completing the puzzle that has plagued the city for 25 years.
The Reds were readily prepared in an Opening Day showdown against the favored Pittsburgh Pirates. Cueto pitched seven frames of shutout baseball, surrendering only four hits but earning a no decision for his performance. Home runs by sluggers Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier propelled the Reds offense to victory, but not before the Cuban Missile Aroldis Chapman blazed by a couple of bootleggers to notch his 114th career save.
Although attending numerous games in the past, this was my first Opening Day experience and a great one at that. The atmosphere at Great American is a nostalgic mix of old school style, new age dynamics, and an unparalleled view of the radiant Kentucky Valley. And if there was one thought on my mind as I sat on the third base line taking in all the sights and sounds of the game, it was this: It sure feels good to be a Reds fan.
Breaking down each position:
Billy Hamilton- The rookie speedster and stolen base phenom broke into the league with a bang, stealing 56 bases and flashing an award-worthy glove in center field. Although his incredible speed speaks volume of a great lead off hitter, Hamilton's plate discipline will need a lot of improvement. After an abysmal .292 on base percentage in 2014, the young outfielder's patience will be tested in his sophomore campaign.
Todd Frazier- The "Toddfather" had his best offensive season to date in 2015, slugging 29 homers and swiping 20 bases to go along with his fist All Star selection. The durable third baseman has shown significant defensive improvement at the hot corner. Frazier has powerful swing and a good eye at the plate which may very well turn him into a consistent number 3 hitter.
Joey Votto- The on-base machine may be the most anticipated and vital component of this 2015 Reds lineup. Playing in just 62 games in 2014, Votto's MVP-caliber production was nowhere to be found. The star first baseman led the league in on base percentage for four consecutive seasons beginning in 2010, and is one of only a handful of players with a 300/400/500 line for his career.
Devin Mesoraco- Mesoraco had a career year in 2014, becoming only the second catcher in Reds' history to go for 25 homers and 80 RBIs, all while playing in just 114 games. The Punxsutawney phenom is expected to do great things this year, most likely filling the cleanup position. His bat will be highly valued in this lineup, and, if healthy, the young catcher will be a key catalyst in the hunt for a Reds October.
Jay Bruce- The Beaumont Bomber had arguably the worst offensive season of his career in 2014. After three straight years of shelling out 30 big flies, the 27 year-old slugger hit just .217 in 493 at bats to go along with a cringe-worthy .281 on base. Bruce is finally healthy and if that song remains the same, he'll have a bounce back year and post the numbers of which we all know he's capable.
Marlon Byrd- The newly acquired outfielder will now be playing for his 8th ball club in 13 years in the big leagues. Although turning 36 back in August, Byrd has shown he still has pop in his bat and will be a good veteran presence in the clubhouse. If his strikeout totals can be stunted and his on base rediscovered from his days in Texas, Byrd will be extremely valuable in run production for this talented Reds offense.
Brandon Phillips- The journeyman second baseman has made his mark on the Queen City, whether it be with a flashing glove or a dazzling smile. Phillips' offensive production fell significantly in 2014 after posting a 100 RBI effort the year before, but his defensive prowess will always be his greatest asset. The four time gold-glove winner is always consistent in his leadership role and can be just as effective at the plate as he has done many times before.
Zack Cozart- Cozart showed exceptional defensive skill in 2014, but the same can not be said for his bat. The 29 year old shortstop had a downright awful year, posting a .568 OPS and hitting just 4 home runs in 147 games, compared to 12 and 15 respectively in his first two full seasons. Cozart has shown modest hitting ability at times and will need better plate discipline to give the Reds more support at the bottom of their lineup.
This is Reds country.
The Reds are coming off a mediocre 2014 season, finishing 76-86 which was good for a 4th place finish in the NL Central. An injury to first baseman Joey Votto was a critical blow to the Reds' postseason aspirations. A Cy Young-worthy performance by ace Johnny Cueto, a surprise contribution from Alfredo Simon, and good offensive production from sluggers Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier were all key factors in keeping the Reds slightly above water for most of the season.
This year looks to be different, however, as Cincinnati put together a solid set of off-season acquisitions and has a healthy lineup of incredible talent. Pursuing a division title will rely in part on the performance of newly acquired pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and veteran Jason Marquis, as well as the contributions of a shaky bullpen that has caused trouble in recent years. This Cincy ball club has all the pieces for postseason success, but the real challenge will be finding where each piece fits and completing the puzzle that has plagued the city for 25 years.
The Reds were readily prepared in an Opening Day showdown against the favored Pittsburgh Pirates. Cueto pitched seven frames of shutout baseball, surrendering only four hits but earning a no decision for his performance. Home runs by sluggers Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier propelled the Reds offense to victory, but not before the Cuban Missile Aroldis Chapman blazed by a couple of bootleggers to notch his 114th career save.
Although attending numerous games in the past, this was my first Opening Day experience and a great one at that. The atmosphere at Great American is a nostalgic mix of old school style, new age dynamics, and an unparalleled view of the radiant Kentucky Valley. And if there was one thought on my mind as I sat on the third base line taking in all the sights and sounds of the game, it was this: It sure feels good to be a Reds fan.
Breaking down each position:
Billy Hamilton- The rookie speedster and stolen base phenom broke into the league with a bang, stealing 56 bases and flashing an award-worthy glove in center field. Although his incredible speed speaks volume of a great lead off hitter, Hamilton's plate discipline will need a lot of improvement. After an abysmal .292 on base percentage in 2014, the young outfielder's patience will be tested in his sophomore campaign.
Todd Frazier- The "Toddfather" had his best offensive season to date in 2015, slugging 29 homers and swiping 20 bases to go along with his fist All Star selection. The durable third baseman has shown significant defensive improvement at the hot corner. Frazier has powerful swing and a good eye at the plate which may very well turn him into a consistent number 3 hitter.
Joey Votto- The on-base machine may be the most anticipated and vital component of this 2015 Reds lineup. Playing in just 62 games in 2014, Votto's MVP-caliber production was nowhere to be found. The star first baseman led the league in on base percentage for four consecutive seasons beginning in 2010, and is one of only a handful of players with a 300/400/500 line for his career.
Devin Mesoraco- Mesoraco had a career year in 2014, becoming only the second catcher in Reds' history to go for 25 homers and 80 RBIs, all while playing in just 114 games. The Punxsutawney phenom is expected to do great things this year, most likely filling the cleanup position. His bat will be highly valued in this lineup, and, if healthy, the young catcher will be a key catalyst in the hunt for a Reds October.
Jay Bruce- The Beaumont Bomber had arguably the worst offensive season of his career in 2014. After three straight years of shelling out 30 big flies, the 27 year-old slugger hit just .217 in 493 at bats to go along with a cringe-worthy .281 on base. Bruce is finally healthy and if that song remains the same, he'll have a bounce back year and post the numbers of which we all know he's capable.
Marlon Byrd- The newly acquired outfielder will now be playing for his 8th ball club in 13 years in the big leagues. Although turning 36 back in August, Byrd has shown he still has pop in his bat and will be a good veteran presence in the clubhouse. If his strikeout totals can be stunted and his on base rediscovered from his days in Texas, Byrd will be extremely valuable in run production for this talented Reds offense.
Brandon Phillips- The journeyman second baseman has made his mark on the Queen City, whether it be with a flashing glove or a dazzling smile. Phillips' offensive production fell significantly in 2014 after posting a 100 RBI effort the year before, but his defensive prowess will always be his greatest asset. The four time gold-glove winner is always consistent in his leadership role and can be just as effective at the plate as he has done many times before.
Zack Cozart- Cozart showed exceptional defensive skill in 2014, but the same can not be said for his bat. The 29 year old shortstop had a downright awful year, posting a .568 OPS and hitting just 4 home runs in 147 games, compared to 12 and 15 respectively in his first two full seasons. Cozart has shown modest hitting ability at times and will need better plate discipline to give the Reds more support at the bottom of their lineup.
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